Saturday, 27 July 2013
It's people. Too many people.
Why is there a supposed housing shortage? Too many people.
Round here the bulldozers don't stop. Massive new housing developments in Milton Keynes and Aylesbury. 1000 houses per year in Milton Keynes and in Aylesbury another 1000 per year. Acre after acre turned into massive estates with new schools and other facilities.
Western European countries have low fertility rates, below the replacement rate of 2.1. Germany: 1.4 (its total population is 81.9 million, of which 8.2% are foreigners). Holland: 1.8 (16.5 million, of which 4.4% are foreigners). Belgium: 1.8 (10.8 million, of which 9.8% are foreigners). Spain: 1.4 (46.1 million, of which 12.4% are foreigners). Italy: 1.4 (60.2 million, of which 7.1% are foreigners), the Pope’s views notwithstanding. Sweden, which provides deep support for parents, has a high TFR of 1.9 (9.4 million, of which 6.4% are foreigners), but that’s still below the replacement rate. Ireland and the U.K. also have high TFRs, at 2.1 and 1.9, respectively, but these rates are derived from non-European immigrant parents.
Note that the UK has a birth rate, TFR, below the replacement rate of 2.1 even with the high birth rate of non-European immigrants. So why the need for more housing? Net migration which is running at over 150,000 per year. Better than it was but still awful.
In hand waving terms we need a new city the size of Milton Keynes every year just to accommodate the new arrivals. That's new houses, schools, hospitals, roads and so on as well as the national infrastructure that goes with this.
Struggling A&E at the local NHS dive? Too many people. Pressure on housing? too many people. Congested trains and roads? Too many people.
Since population growth is down to mass immigration the only way to stabilize the population is to limit immigration to no more than the emigration rate. Like a full car park, no one allowed in until someone leaves.